Centre for Public Policy Research has conducted a post poll survey between 10th of April and 20th of April, 2021, to understand the prevailing political narrative of the state and the various factors that affect the voting pattern of the electorate. A sample size of above 2600 has been collected from various constituencies spread across different parts of the states to gauge the people’s perception of the current government and their expectations for the next government.
The state has 140 legislative assembly constituencies in 14 districts, from which 14 constituencies have been selected for conducting the study using random table method. 4 polling booths were selected from each of these constituencies (Polling booths as per 20-01-2021). This pattern was followed for all the 14 constituencies . A sample size of 50 has been collected from each polling booth which resulted in 200 responses per constituency.
Key points from the study are as follows :
- 41.7 % of the respondents opted for LDF to form the next government, 41.6% of the respondents opted UDF and 12.3% of the respondents supported NDA.
- 59% of the respondents had made up their mind on whom to vote for well before the campaign started and 22% of the respondents when the candidates were announced.
- 85% of the respondents opined that their decision on whom to vote for is not influenced by husband/wife, father/mother/any relatives or any community leader.
- According to the voters, Pinarayi Vijayan and Oommen Chandy are the 2 main contenders for next the Chief Minister. 38% of the voters want Pinarayi Vijayan as their next CM followed by Oommen Chandy (31%).
- The 4 factors that influenced voters on whom to vote were Party (50%), MLA candidate (24%), Performance of LDF Government (9%), Chief Minister Candidates(8%).
- Out of the total respondents, except the first time voters, 44% of the voters voted for UDF in the 2016 state assembly election, followed by 39% for LDF.
- 46% of the female respondents and 39% of the male respondents voted for LDF this time, meanwhile 37% of the female and 44% of the male respondents voted for UDF. In the case of NDA it is 11% and 13% respectively.
- 50% of the respondents opined that measures like food kits, free COVID treatment, welfare pensions etc had an impact on the elections.
- Caste/Community wise break up of when they respondents made up their mind on whom to vote for
- Hindu General (Nair, Brahmin etc) – 52% – well before the campaign and 28% when the candidates are announced and 13% – during the campaign
- Hindu OBC(Ezhava, Thiyya, Viswakarma etc) – 62% – well before the campaign and 25% – when the candidates are announced and 8% – during the campaign
- SC/ST – 38% – well before the campaign, 37%- when the candidates are announced, 15% – during the campaign.
- Christian – 65% – well before the campaign, 16% – when the candidates are announced, 16% – during the campaign.
- Muslim – 34%- well before the campaign started, 34% – when the candidates are announced, and 20% during the campaign.
- Impact of food kits, free covid treatment and welfare pensions- Caste/community wise
- Hindu General – 37% opined that it will impact elections and 40% said there won’t be any impact (rest of the responses are it may impact)
- Hindu OBC – 55% opined that it will impact and 22% said that it won’t be impacting the elections
- SC/ST – 55% said it will impact and 21% said it won’t impact
- Christian- 49% said it will impact, 18% it wont impact and 32% saidit may impact
- Muslim – 53% said it will impact and 24% said it wont have an impact on the elections.
- What mattered the most while deciding whom to vote for based on income categorisation.
- 2.5 to 5 lac : 46% based on the party and 27% based on the MLA candidate
- 5 to 10 lac : 20% based on the party, 27% based on the MLA candidate and 26% based on the performance of the LDF government
- Above 10 lac – 60% party, 20% MLA candidate, 10% CM candidate
- Below 1 lac – 55% party, 22% MLA candidate, 10% CM candidate
- Below 2.5 lac – 55% party, 22% – MLA candidate, 9% CM candidate.
- 32% of the voters think there was a very high impact on elections due to Sabarimala women entry. 65% of the high impacters are Male. The trend is the same for the High impact category which amounts to 15% of the voters. 22% high impacters are female
- Gold smuggling : 35% total | 27.9% of the women think that chance of it impacting elections is very high and 37.9% of the male respondents thinks it as very high impacter for the election
- Deep sea trawling issue :19 %
- 17.6 % of the women respondents – very high
- 20% of the male respondents – very high
- Kayamkulam + Kollam (coastal constituencies) – 38% of the respondents deep sea trawling very high impactor, in that 58% are male and 39% are female
- Vote shift in 2016 Vs 2021
- LDF – 84.91% of those who voted for LDF in 2016 continued to support LDF even in 2021, 11.08% shifted to UDF and 2.01% to NDA.
- UDF – 80.91% of those who voted for UDF in 2016 continued to support UDF in 2021 also, meanwhile 8,74% shifted to LDF and 7.74% shifted to NDA
- NDA – 91,78% of those who voted for NDA continued to support NDA in 2021, 3,65% shifted to UDF and 3.20% shifted to LDF
Click Here to view CPPR Kerala Assembly Election 2021: Post Poll Survey Result