In this episode of Policy Beyond Borders, we explore the repercussions of the recent Hamas attack on Israel and the broader West Asian region. We examine the possible consequences of the conflict on the energy market and the ongoing peace talks. Additionally, we contemplate how India might navigate the complexities of managing its relationship with Israel and Palestine while maintaining a delicate balance.

Moderator: Neelima A, Associate Research, CPPR 

Speaker: Dr Shelly Johny,  Senior Fellow (West Asian & Security Studies), CPPR

Key Takeaways:

  1. Israel shifted from offensive to defensive capabilities, investing in security barriers and the Iron Dome. This shift may have provided an opportunity for Hamas to launch an offensive strike.
  2. Recent normalization agreements between Saudi Arabia and Iran, facilitated by China, and Saudi Arabia and Israel, mediated by the US, could face short-term disruptions. If Iran’s support for Hamas is confirmed, it might further complicate relationships among West Asian nations and potentially reshape the regional geopolitical dynamics.
  3. The nations might impose sanctions on Iran if Iran’s involvement is confirmed. These sanctions could have far-reaching consequences, particularly affecting Iran’s oil exports and consequently impacting the global energy market.
  4. Saudi Arabia may need to reevaluate its policy of cutting down oil production. Instead, it might need to consider increasing its oil production to compensate for any potential disruptions in the energy market caused by the crisis.
  5. India should involve in direct negotiation between Israel and Palestine. However, there are challenges associated with the feasibility of such talks in the near future, potentially complicating India’s efforts to navigate the situation diplomatically.
  6. The traditional two-state solution has lost its practicality and effectiveness in the context of the current political and social complexities. This necessitates exploring alternative approaches to achieve a sustainable resolution.
  7. A potential solution is to form of a single-nation model, where both Israel and Palestine would have equal rights within the state. This approach could potentially offer a more inclusive and equitable framework for resolving the conflict.
  8. There are challenges posed by the deep-seated divisions and polarisations within both Israel and Palestine. These internal rifts create significant obstacles to effective negotiations and hinder the prospects of reaching a mutually acceptable solution.

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