Key Takeaways

The article, while analysing the major trends of the elections in 5 states from the prognostic angle of the 2024 LS polls, unfolds: 

1. The NDA/BJP appears to be better placed in 2024 polls. A sweep in Hindi heartland will enable them to overcome any electoral set-back for them in the South or other states like Bihar or Maharashtra.
2. Their impressive performance in the Dalits-TrIbal- areas of central India and the success in the consolidation of the upper caste and OBCs, despite the challenges posed by the slogans of caste census and economic survey, have given more confidence to the BJP to face 2024 polls.
3. The BJP is likely to continue the ‘women-centric election strategy’ which has given rich dividends for the party in the recent polls. 
4. Prime Minister Modi’s charismatic leadership continues to be the main weapon for the BJP to successfully face the 2024 polls, as against the weak leadership of the Opposition camp, especially the Congress.
5. The INDIA Alliance, facing internal contradictions and differences in the aftermath of the recent polls, is to overcome many hurdles in order to emerge as a viable opposition to the NDA/BJP.
6. The political power balance, which has now shifted clearly in favour of the BJP, will influence the stand of other regional/state parties. This may further augment the position of the BJP even in other states where the party has no major stake now.       

The results of the elections to 5 states are out; the Lotus has blossomed in full colour and elegance; the saffron flag has flown higher in the horizons of the Hindi heartland; and the skinny ‘Hand’ with wrinkles appeared weaker and meeker. Of the five states, the BJP won Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh; the Congress wrested Telangana from BRS; whereas a new-born regional party (Zoram Peoples’ Party) captured power in Mizoram, defeating their main regional opponent and incumbent (Mizo National Front) and virtually decimating the national parties. The results clearly reflected the significant surge of the saffron-party and the steep decline of Congress. While the BJP almost doubled its tally of assembly seats in these states as compared to the 2018 polls, the grand old party lost one-fourth of its existing seats. The regional parties that have lost their sheen in the recent elections have foregone around 45 percent of their seats as compared to the 2018 polls (See Table 1).  

Table 1: Assembly Elections 2023 – Total ACs & Seats won by parties 

Source: (Based on Election Commission data) 

*Election to one seat deferred

 **In total, the figures in brackets indicate the seats won in the 2018 elections. 

More than the microlevel analysis of the election results, what appears to be more relevant is a closer look into the major trends or insights from these elections. The first and foremost is the formidable march of the BJP in the ‘Hindi-belt’ virtually demolishing the Congress and other opposition parties. Considering the dismal performance of the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, despite two decades of anti-incumbency and internal squabbles against the BJP, the indication is that the revival of the Congress in north and central India before the 2024 LS polls is a herculean task. Another BJP sweep in the region would greatly help them to overcome the electoral set-backs that they may likely face in the southern states or other states like Bihar or Maharashtra in 2024.

There are enough indications on the above lines, the most significant being the sterling performance of the BJP in the Tribal-Dalit heartland of central India. While the party’s strike rate of success in Scheduled Caste (SC) reserved seats in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh was over 50 percent, the same in respect of Scheduled Tribe seats was around 50 percent in these states. (See Table 2). 

Table 2: Elections 2023 – ST/SC Seats won by BJP, Congress & others  

If this trend is repeated, the NDA/BJP may extend their gains to other states like Jharkhand, Orissa, Telangana, Bihar, etc. where Tribals and Dalits have decisive pockets of influence. Not only that the NDA has come out with a number of schemes/projects for the overall welfare of these sections and preserving their socio-cultural identity, but also that the RSS and its affiliates could influence them through systematic campaigns and propaganda, as witnessed in areas like Bastar and Surguja in Chhattisgarh. Definitely, they would explore   all other means for further consolidation of the Dalits and Tribals in their favour, before the LS polls. Perhaps a typical example is the move to introduce sub-categorization of Scheduled Castes in order to appease prominent SC groups like the Madiga in Telangana who are in conflict with another SC group, Malas, on issues like reservation, etc. 

Simultaneously, the BJP could consolidate its position among upper castes and upwardly mobile Other Backward Communities (OBCs), virtually nullifying the agenda of Caste census and economic survey vigorously mooted by the Congress on the eve of the elections. While a ‘Rainbow leadership’ comprising leaders of Rajput, Brahmins, Baniyas, Jat, Gujjars and Meena’ in Rajasthan could consolidate these sections under the banner of the BJP, powerful OBCs like Kurmis and Sahus have substantially helped BJP in Chhattisgarh. The pillar of Hindutva and the strident nationalist sentiments, backed by the ideological plank of the RSS, have considerably contributed to this consolidation. Above all, in a rising economy when market forces impact the lives of common people and the welfarist measures and ‘freebies’ of all hues are plentiful, caste-based quotas and promises may have only marginal appeal among people, especially the middle-class. Thus, the BJP, as a clever move, has given a new orientation to the entire caste issue, interpreting that they have only four real castes, namely, the poor, youth, farmers and women, whose interests are fully taken care of under ‘Modi’s – guarantees’!

The ‘women-centric election promises and campaigns’ to a great extent have helped BJP- victory in the Hindi heartland, especially in Madhya Pradesh. In the case of MP, Shiv Raj Singh Chouhan, during his tenure, has created around 2 dozen women-centric programmes, of which ‘Ladli Behna Yojana’ covering over 1.30 crore women created a strong pro-BJP approach among large sections of women voters, which clearly reflected in the elections.  With ‘double-engine sarkars’ in majority of the Hindi-heartland states, the BJP may introduce more such programmes and try to reap rich harvest from women voters in 2024 polls. With the introduction of Women’s Reservation Bill, 2023, the BJP has set the stage for pursuing its agenda of women empowerment in all sectors. 

The recent Assembly elections have demonstrated how the organisational strength of parties, ideologically committed cadres, ground level election-strategy and tactics and the ability of leaders/campaigners to translate ideas into reality determine the outcome of the elections. In this regard, the BJP has excelled in almost all these key areas. There were apprehensions among sections of BJP leaders about whether ‘Central centric election strategy’ without projecting the prominent state leaders would work to the advantage of the party or not. But once Prime Minister Modi has stepped into the central stage of the electioneering, the scenario has drastically changed to the fullest advantage of the party. Leading the campaign from the front, he could infuse confidence and enthusiasm among the rank and file of the party, revive the sagging morale of the party organisation, work out compromise with leaders having differences and reach the larger sections of the voters through his rhetoric and pungent slogans and themes. Modi has once again demonstrated that he is the most powerful and successful campaigner for the BJP. No doubt, Modi’s charismatic leadership continues to be the main weapon for the BJP to face the 2024 polls with more confidence. 

On the other hand, the elections have exposed the weakness of Congress’s leadership. Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’, highlighting the issues of the poor and middle class and themes such as economic survey and the alleged pro-corporate policies and crony capitalist-tendencies of the BJP government, seemed to have evoked a lukewarm response among larger segments of the voters in the ‘Hindi-belt’. Even in the Christian-dominated state of Mizoram, such an extensive campaign failed to cut much ice with the electorate, as demonstrated by the election results. The free-hand given by the Party High Command to the ’state-satraps’ to work out the election strategy in their states has virtually boomeranged except in Telangana. The façade  of unity and cohesiveness in the party, as claimed by the state leaders in the Hindi heartland states, has turned out to be a myth. While the ‘Gehlot-Pilot cold war’ has adversely affected the poll prospects of the party in a number of marginal constituencies, especially in Gujjar-dominated areas of Rajasthan, Baghel-T S Singh Deo differences in Chhattisgarh have virtually decimated the Congress in many strongholds of Singh Deo. In such intra-party schisms, Singh Deo himself was defeated by a thin margin of around 100 votes. Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, the ‘silent- schism‘ within the party has led to the defeat of a number of party candidates, even in Gwalior-Chambal belt, considered to be the party’s traditional stronghold. Ironically, some of the defeated candidates of the area were close relatives of Dig Vijay Singh! 

The dominating role of the ‘State satraps’ in formulating the election strategy and their reservations about accommodating parties of the INDIA alliance in the election fray have shaken the foundations of the Alliance. In spite of best efforts by parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP), CPI, CPM, AAP, etc., none of the INDIA alliance partners could enter into an electoral understanding with the Congress in these states. The ‘big-brother’ attitude of the Congress has evoked sharp criticism from the senior leaders of these parties. After the Congress rout in the elections, such criticism has become more vocal. After the polls, the INDIA alliance has become a ‘Tower of Babel’ with senior leaders speaking in different tongues and airing their dreams and ambitions. Having faced the drubbing in the polls and lost its clout and bargaining power within the Alliance, the Congress call to convene its meeting on December 6, 2023, has received lukewarm response from other key-players- Nitish Kumar, Mamta Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav and Arvind Kejriwal.

There are many hurdles for the INDIA alliance to emerge as a viable opposition to the BJP.  Firstly, these parties should arrive at a consensus on the party or the leader heading the alliance. A loose political confederation of parties with divergent ideologies, priorities and activities without a Common Minimum Programme (CMP) or projected leader would be less appealing for the voters. Secondly, the Alliance is yet to come up with a convincing narrative in line with its political viability. The sole theme or slogan of ousting BJP/ Narendra Modi from power may not be acceptable to the larger chunk of Indian voters who foresee India as a major global power in the present millennium. Thirdly, the regional ‘satraps’ who have their fiefdoms should have a larger pan-Indian perspective on crucial issues like national-level seat sharing and sound electoral-strategies. And last but not least, the leaders of the alliance should demonstrate political sagacity and acumen and desist from making parochial-chauvinist statements that would wound the religious, cultural or ethnic sentiments of the people across India. 

With the INDIA alliance still remaining fragile and ineffective, the BJP is optimistic about the likely shift in the political power-equation as the aftermath of the recent polls. As the political-power balance has now clearly shifted in favour of the BJP, more and more parties are likely to join their bandwagon sooner or later. It is quite natural that people or parties join hands with the victors and not the vanquished. A humbled BRS in Telangana, with its national political ambitions, may be more prone to ally with BJP than its arch rival in the state. The party, which polled around 37 percent of the votes in the recent polls, may pose a serious challenge to the Congress in 2024 LS polls if it aligns with BJP, which secured 14 percent of the votes. A similar scenario exists in Karnataka, where a humbled JD(S) during the last state polls has already joined hands with the BJP, which had 36 percent of votes, only 7 percent less than the Congress. The TDP in Andhra Pradesh has already established cordial relations with the BJP. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK, which has strained relations with the BJP on ‘Annamalai issue’, may change its stance in the new scenario.  Moreover, prominent state parties like the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh and Biju Janata Dal in Orissa, which are likely to repeat their performance in 2024 polls while keeping their neutral line, may be keener to develop good relations with the BJP, considering the larger interests of the state and the likely return to power by the NDA/BJP in 2024.  

Views expressed by the author are personal and need not reflect or represent the views of the Centre for Public Policy Research.

K V Thomas

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K V Thomas is Senior Fellow at CPPR. He has over 36 years of distinguished service in the Intelligence Bureau (Ministry of Home Affairs) of India where he rose to become the Associate Director. He can be contacted at [email protected]

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