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June 27, 2025Iran-Israel Conflict and its Ripple Effects on India
The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) initiated Operation Rising Lion on June 13 to strike Iranian nuclear and military facilities, marking a major escalation in the Iran-Israel Conflict
In Short:
- Israel launches attacks against nuclear and military facilities in Iran, under the code name Rising Lion.
- The present Iran-Israel conflict poses a challenge to regional stability and prospects for peace in West Asia.
- India faces a complex challenge to protect its energy and economic interests while maintaining its good ties with both countries.
West Asia has once again captured global interest due to the latest escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict. The recent military exchanges between Israel and Iran represent a new peak in tensions, as these two nations have now engaged in direct strikes after years of indirect conflict through proxies, amidst escalating rhetoric.
Months of Tensions Come to a Boil in Iran-Israel Conflict
The escalating tensions reached a new phase on June 13, 2025, when Israel launched targeted attacks against Iranian nuclear and military facilities under the name Operation Rising Lion. These attacks also targeted senior Iranian generals and nuclear scientists. The attack represents Iran’s most significant military challenge since the 1980s, when it fought against Iraq during the Iraq-Iran War. Iran responded to the Israeli strike by sending ballistic missiles towards Israel.
The latest round of Iran-Israel exchange of strikes marks a serious escalation, but this is not the first time these nations have clashed in this manner. In 2024, Iran and Israel carried out strikes against each other but with more measured intensity. The events in 2024 began when Iran and Iran-backed groups in the region faced attacks by Israel, including the killing of the leader of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon, along with the targeted assassination of the leader of Hamas in the Iranian capital, Tehran. The once-feared Iranian-backed groups have been significantly weakened in recent months, and the overthrow of the Syrian leader, Bashar al Assad, in December 2024 further hardened the blow.
The Shadow of October 7
The catalyst of the present crisis can be traced back to October 7, when the region entered this state of turmoil. On October 7, 2023, a devastating terrorist attack in Israel by Hamas killed hundreds of Israeli civilians. The attack set off Israeli attacks against Hamas in Gaza, which drew multiple groups into this conflict, including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The conflict has now snowballed into the present situation that produces strikes throughout Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.
Iran maintains long-standing accusations about its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as its backing of Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza, which oppose Israel and conduct regular attacks against Israel.
The Nuclear Question
This current strike by Israel, focusing on targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, is unique. It reflects the Israeli concern about Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. The present attacks against Iran specifically targeted their nuclear and enrichment facilities. Israel considers Iranian nuclear capability an existential crisis. The Operation Rising Lion launched against Iranian nuclear facilities constitutes a preemptive operation, according to Israel, because it perceives an imminent threat from Iran getting hold of nuclear weapons.
However, the legality of this strike has been called into question. The International Atomic Energy Agency director, the key UN nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi has stated in a CNN interview that there is no immediate evidence to support that Iran is developing nuclear weapons despite its nuclear program. At this crucial junction, Iran faces significant weakening and fewer allies to rally around it this time around. Lebanon, seeking to avoid involvement in another extended, devastating war with Israel, has warned Hezbollah against getting involved in this current conflict.
Operation Rising Lion
The recent Iranian attacks by Israel have been designated under the operational code ‘Operation Rising Lion’. The lion holds a substantial position within Persian literary and artistic traditions. The lion in Persian stands as a powerful symbol that embodies bravery and strength while drawing from Persian mythological and literary traditions. Moving beyond mythology and literature, the Pahlavi dynasty of Iran used the sun and the lion as their royal symbol during their rule of Iran, which was toppled during the Iranian Revolution of 1979. The speculation arises that Israel might be attempting to overthrow the current Iranian government and establish a new administration, possibly bringing back the Pehlavi dynasty.
One of the key factors to look at is whether the US will get itself involved in this conflict. During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump pledged to avoid further wars. Many in the United States view Israel as its greatest ally. Trump faces a difficult decision because many in his base do not want to see the US involved in a military action against Iran.
Strategic and Economic Implications of the Iran-Israel Conflict for India
The Iran-Israel conflict presents a complex challenge for India, as it has to protect its energy interests, prevent regional escalations, and at the same time maintain a balanced approach to the escalating conflict. India’s foreign policy is inherently challenged by its historical ties and strategic partnerships with Iran and Israel. Israel is a crucial partner in defence and technology, while Iran holds significance for energy security and as a broader gateway to Eurasia. This calls for a delicate balancing act, as India should strive to maintain its strategic autonomy without alienating the other side.
Oil Supply Disruptions amidst Escalating Tensions
The growing tensions between Iran and Israel have serious implications for India, particularly in terms of energy. India is dependent on the Persian Gulf for its oil imports, with a large amount of this oil trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Any blockage in this zone can end up in disruptions in the oil supply. The Strait of Hormuz is the primary export route for crude oil and LNG from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran itself. The conflict has already caused an increase in oil prices, and the US operation in Iran could lead to a worsening of the situation. There are speculations that in retaliation for US strikes, Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leading to the price of oil skyrocketing. Even limited interruptions in oil transit through the Strait could hinder refinery operations in India and ripple across the broader economy, particularly affecting key sectors such as aviation and manufacturing.
Trade Route Disruptions and Economic Fallouts
The escalating conflict poses a potential threat to India’s export trade routes, as cargo vessels will have to bypass the Red Sea route and instead take the longer and expensive route through the Cape of Good Hope. Looking back, when the Red Sea crisis happened in 2023, the Houthis attacked and seized the merchant ships and vessels passing through the region, which led to an increase in shipping costs.
Beyond disruptions to trade routes, India also faces the possibility of an economic fallout due to its substantial trade relations with both Iran and Israel. In the fiscal year 2025, India exported goods worth $1.24 billion to Iran and imported goods valued at $441.9 million. Trade with Israel was even more significant, with exports amounting to $2.15 billion and imports totaling $1.61 billion. A direct military confrontation between the two countries could severely disrupt these economic ties.
Operation Sindhu and the Indian Diaspora at Risk
The Iran-Israel conflict also raises security concerns for nearly 28,000 Indian nationals in Israel, as well as the approximately 10,765 Indians who live in Iran, according to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). The rising tensions jeopardize their safety, and the Indian government has already issued travel advisories to protect its citizens. Amid the rising tensions, the Indian Embassy has facilitated the overland relocation of 110 Indian students from Tehran to Armenia on Tuesday under ‘Operation Sindhu‘. The students were subsequently flown from Yerevan to New Delhi, arriving early Thursday on the first evacuation flight. In Israel, the embassy has confirmed the safety of all Indian nationals and is maintaining a 24/7 helpline to remain in continuous contact with the Indian community.
Looking Forward from the Iran-Israel Conflict
The Iran-Israel conflict is not a distant regional issue. The US involvement adds a different dimension to the conflict. Any further escalation will have significant implications for India’s economy, connectivity, trade, and strategic autonomy. From rising crude oil prices to risks facing the Chabahar Port, the crisis touches multiple facets of India’s national interest. For India, the stakes remain high as it has both economic and strategic interests with both Iran and Israel. India must respond with balance. It must do so by strengthening its resilience in energy, protecting its trade corridors, and engaging all sides diplomatically.
The Iran-Israel conflict sets a precedent for other nuclear powers. Preventive strikes could incentivize similar actions elsewhere, eroding diplomatic and non-proliferation efforts. In addition, rapid nuclearization could encourage other states like Saudi Arabia to pursue nuclear capabilities. Nuclear non-proliferation and regional cooperation are essential to de-escalate tensions in West Asia. In an increasingly interconnected world, India’s ability to navigate external conflicts will define not just its foreign policy success but also its strategic relevance.
Dr Dhritishree Bordalai is a Senior Research Associate, Adithyan Puthen Veetil is a Research Consultant, and Kalyani S K is a Research Associate in the International Relations vertical at Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR), Kochi, Kerala, India.
Views expressed by the authors are personal and need not reflect or represent the views of the Centre for Public Policy Research.
Dr Dhritishree Bordalai holds a PhD from the Centre for European Studies (CES), School of International Studies (SIS), Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. She has a Certificate in Public Policy and Management from the Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode (IIM-K), and has been awarded the UGC-DAAD Short-Term Scholarship during her PhD at the Otto-Suhr-Institut für Politikwissenschaft (OSI), Freie Universität Berlin, Germany.
She has attended several national and international conferences on her area of research and presented a paper at the Young Researchers Conference in JNU. Her core areas of research are migration, security and refugee studies.
Adithyan Puthen Veettil holds a BA in Economics from Azim Premji University and a Master’s degree in Advanced International Studies from the Vienna School of International Studies. He has previously worked at the UN in Vienna, and his published articles for the Austrian Economics Centre and Polemics Magazine.
Kalyani S K holds a Master’s in International Relations from Loyola College, Chennai with her dissertation on George W Bush's administration and American soft power. She actively collaborates with think tanks, government agencies, UNHRC, and academic institutions, contributing to research, policy engagement, and strategic dialogues. Her core areas of interest include maritime security, climate diplomacy, and sustainable development.
