The verdict of the 13th Assembly elections in Kerala is peculiar in ways more than one. The final tally of seats won – UDF 72 and LDF 68 – is unheard of in recent history. The Indian National Congress, which emerged as the second largest party has formed the government while the CPI (M), the largest party in terms of seats, won will form the opposition. There are a lot of such unique features attached to this result.

Our analysis and findings:
The total number of candidates that contested in the elections was 971, out of which 456 were representatives of national parties, namely CPM, CPI, INC, BJP, BSP, and NCP. Ninety eight contestants among the 456 were elected; they constitute 21 per cent of total 456. This 21 per cent constitutes 70 per cent of the total members in the Assembly. Therefore, we conclude that national parties constitute 70 per cent of the members in the 13th Kerala Assembly.


Four state parties, which included the Muslim League, the KC(M), the JD(S), and the KC (AMG) fielded 45 contestants out of which 33 were elected, thus clocking a 73 per cent overall success rate (all four parties included). These 33 MLAs represent 23 per cent in the 140-member Assembly. This shows that state parties constitute 23 per cent of members in the Assembly. Regional parties and independents together constitute the remaining 7 per cent.

Below are graphical representations of various aspects of the elections:

Percentage break up of seats in the 13th  Kerala Assembly

 

Young Candidates (aged 40 and below)
Out of the total 971 candidates, contestants under the age of 40 were 285, thus accounting for 29 per cent of the total number of candidates.  Of the 285, only 10 got elected and accounts for about 3 per cent. These 10 young MLAs constitute 7 per cent of the Kerala Assembly.
The gender wise distribution of total number of young candidates was male – 90 per cent and female – 10 per cent.

 Percentage share of young contestants in various parties

 

Party

% of young candidates in the total number of candidates fielded by the party

CPM

2.1

INC

6

CPI

3.2

BJP

9.8

MLKSC

0.4

INDEPENDENT

42.8

OTHERS

35.8

 

Gender wise distribution of young candidates in various parties

 

Party

% of female candidates in total no of young candidates

% of Male candidates in total no of young candidates

CPM

0

100

INC

17.6

82.4

CPI

11.1

88.9

BJP

17.9

82.1

MLKSC

0

100

INDEPENDENT

6.6

93.4

OTHERS

11.8

88.2

 

These facts are a pity considering the state’s gender ratio, which is 109 females for every 100 males. At the national level, the country is headed by Dr Pratibha Devisingh Patil, India’s first female President; the Lok Sabha is also headed by Meera Kumar with three other states governed by women. Kerala’s trend undermines the relevance of the state gender ratio.

Demographic classification of seats won by UDF, LDF and Independents

 

LDF

UDF

INDEPENDENTS

Urban

48%

52%

Rural

44.3%

54.4%

1.3%

 

Percentage of seats won

Percentage vote share of various parties elected to 13th Kerala assembly

National Parties

PARTY

% OF SEATS

% OF VOTES

CPM

32

28

INC

27

26

CPI

9

9

BJP

0

6

NCP

1

1

BSP

0

0.6

State Parties

PARTY

% OF SEATS

% OF VOTES

MLKSC

14

7

KC (M)

6

4

JD (S)

0

1

KC (AMG)

0

0.5

Regional Parties

PARTY

% OF SEATS

% OF VOTES

SJ (D)

1.43

1.63

RSP

1.43

1.31

KC (J)

0.71

0.91

KC (B)

0.71

0.72

KRSP (B)

0.71

0.31

The statement – ‘Democracy is for the people, by the people and of the people’ – is often heard in times of elections. CPPR analysed the total turnout in the state elections, with respect to total voters, and found out that the 140 MLAs in the 13th Kerala assembly actually represent only 66 per cent of the electorate.