EP.3 – The Global High Tea Series | UAE’S Exit from OPEC and its Impact on Global Oil Prices and India

Introduction

India’s engagement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has evolved into one of its most consequential strategic partnerships, extending well beyond the traditional pillars of energy security and diaspora ties. Today, the GCC is India’s largest trading partner bloc and an increasingly significant partner in investment, infrastructure, technology, food security, logistics, and connectivity. As both sides seek to diversify their economies and strengthen resilient supply chains amid a rapidly changing global trade landscape, economic cooperation has acquired renewed strategic significance. Although India and the GCC have long recognised the potential for a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA), negotiations have progressed in phases. The two sides signed a Framework Agreement on Economic Cooperation in 2004, and formal FTA negotiations commenced in 2006 before being suspended in 2008 following the GCC’s decision to pause external trade negotiations. In the intervening years, India deepened bilateral economic engagement through agreements such as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the UAE in 2022 and Oman in 2025.

On 24 February 2026, India and the GCC formally launched negotiations for a comprehensive FTA through the signing of a Joint Statement by the Union Minister of Commerce and Industry, Shri Piyush Goyal, and GCC Secretary General, H.E. Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi, in New Delhi, following the signing of the Terms of Reference on 5 February 2026. The proposed FTA aims to strengthen trade, investment, and economic integration by providing greater predictability for businesses. The GCC is India’s largest trading partner bloc, with bilateral trade reaching USD 178.56 billion in FY 2024–25 (exports: USD 56.87 billion; imports: USD 121.68 billion), accounting for 15.42% of India’s global trade and growing at an average annual rate of 15.3% over the past five years. India’s key exports include engineering goods, rice, textiles, machinery, and gems and jewellery, while imports comprise crude oil, LNG, petrochemicals, and gold. The GCC, with a population of 61.5 million, a GDP of USD 2.3 trillion (2024), and cumulative FDI into India exceeding USD 31.14 billion (as of September 2025), is also home to nearly 10 million Indians. The FTA is expected to boost bilateral trade, diversify exports, and further strengthen economic cooperation.

The formal launch of negotiations for the India-GCC FTA in February 2026 marks an important milestone in the evolution of India-GCC relations, creating new opportunities to strengthen trade, investment, technology collaboration and regional connectivity. Discussions will explore opportunities to expand trade and investment, strengthen digital and financial connectivity, promote regulatory cooperation and skilled mobility and advance collaboration in emerging areas such as artificial intelligence, critical minerals and the digital economy. This webinar will examine how the India-GCC FTA can serve as an instrument for deeper economic integration and strategic partnership.

Key Takeaways

• Renewed Momentum

Earlier attempts in 2004, 2006, and 2008 stalled as GCC states debated bilateral versus regional approaches. Shifting geoeconomics and energy-security concerns have now revived urgency, with the GCC remaining India’s largest trading bloc.

• Diversification Beyond Oil

Trade can expand into food, agro-products, fisheries, and fintech, while renewable energy offers shared ground as both sides pursue their own energy transitions.

• Investment Mismatch

GCC investors favour large, fast-moving mega projects, while Indian business culture and bureaucracy tend to move more slowly: a gap that has stalled past investment plans.

• Diaspora and Labour Mobility

Indian workers in the Gulf have moved from blue-collar roles to professional and tech positions, though Kafala-related conditions and credential-recognition issues remain unresolved friction points.

• Emerging Technology Cooperation

AI, critical minerals, semiconductors, robotics, green energy, and defence manufacturing stand out as cross-cutting areas where India should push for broad, sector-spanning access.

• Maritime Vulnerability

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have exposed supply chain vulnerabilities and real risks to trade routes, pushing both sides toward more resilient, security-coordinated supply chains.

• Strategic Reframing

The FTA aims to transform the relationship beyond oil-centric transactions toward a broader strategic corridor, with other initiatives such as IMEC, if successful, holding the potential to improve connectivity and inclusivity, potentially benefiting Oman, Iraq, Syria, Egypt, and Turkey.

• Negotiating Hurdles and Timeline

Sensitive sectors like jewellery, precious metals, and food processing complicate talks, compounded by differing business styles and the risk that delay could shrink India’s window of opportunity. Negotiators are still aiming to conclude by year-end, with focus expanding beyond tariffs to greater connectivity, investment, and strategic cooperation.

Speaker

Dr Muddassir Quamar

Associate Professor

Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Relations

Jawaharlal Nehru University

Dr. Muhammed Muddassir Quamar is an Associate Professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Until March 2023, he was a Fellow at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. He holds a Ph.D. in Middle East studies from JNU. He has wide interest in politics and societies in the Arabian Gulf, political Islam, Middle East strategic affairs and India’s relations with the Middle East. Among his works are Türkiye’s Foreign Policy under the AKP: Implications and Challenges for India (2023), Education System in Saudi Arabia: Of Change and Reforms (2021) and India’s Saudi Policy: Bridge to the Future (2019). He has been associated with the Persian Gulf Series since the inaugural issue in 2012. He has edited and co-edited several volumes on contemporary issues in the Middle East including Politics of Change in Middle East and North Africa since Arab Spring: A Lost Decade? (2022) and is the Editor of Contemporary Review of the Middle East.

Moderator

Dr Dhritishree Bordalai

Senior Research Associate, International Relations

Centre for Public Policy Research

Dr Dhritishree Bordalai holds a PhD from the Centre for European Studies (CES), School of International Studies (SIS), Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. She has a Certificate in Public Policy and Management from the Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode (IIM-K), and has been awarded the UGC-DAAD Short-Term Scholarship during her PhD at the Otto-Suhr-Institut für Politikwissenschaft (OSI), Freie Universität Berlin, Germany.

She has attended several national and international conferences in her area of research and presented a paper at the Young Researchers Conference in JNU. Her core areas of research are migration, security and refugee studies.

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