Soham Deshmukh, Research Intern (International Relations), Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

Key Takeaways

• Shared strategic goals, particularly countering China’s influence, will be a cornerstone of the India-US relationship under Biden.
• Biden’s past engagement with India suggests a positive outlook, but recent events may introduce complexities.
• The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and India’s neutral stance, the India-Russia alliance and energy security present potential challenges to India-US relations.
• Despite potential areas of disagreement, like US’s critique of Human Rights in India, establishing ties with nations against India and the Russia-India Alliance – both nations prioritise a strong partnership for regional stability.
• Maintaining a strong India-US partnership requires continuous adaptation and collaboration.

The potential for a second Biden administration ushers in a period of both promise and uncertainty for India-US relations. While the foundation of shared strategic objectives, like countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, suggests enduring cooperation, a closer examination reveals a complex landscape with areas of continuity, potential divergence, and the ever-present shadow of unforeseen events. The strategic convergence between India and the US is likely to remain a cornerstone of the relationship. China’s assertive posturing in the region will continue to serve as a potent driver of deeper security and defence cooperation. Initiatives like the QUAD could witness revitalization and expansion, fostering closer collaboration on maritime security, joint military exercises, and intelligence sharing. Additionally, the fight against global challenges like climate change, pandemics, and terrorism is likely to see intensified collaboration, potentially manifesting in joint ventures in clean energy technologies, sustainable development, and global health preparedness (US DoS). 

The ongoing tenure of the incumbent Joe Biden and his perception of India could be seen from an early stage as a senator, wherein he actively supported India and recognised the stature and significance of the initial Indian nuclear tests. To add to that, he played a significant role in the U.S. Senate’s approval of the nuclear deal with India in 2008. Further, Joe Biden, as Vice President of the United States under the Obama administration, played an active role in U.S.-India engagement. During his 2013 visit to India, Biden met with Indian leaders to discuss the increasingly important bilateral relationship. Biden emphasised the importance of strengthening military cooperation and furthering the relationship between the two countries. Biden also expressed admiration for India’s success and recognised the successful relationship between India and the U.S. (Slack, 2013). After Biden’s visit, the Obama administration continued to prioritise India as a strategic partner. The administration sought to deepen cooperation on issues such as trade, security, and energy. In 2014, Obama chaired a joint session of the U.S. Congress that addressed India’s concerns, further strengthening the relationship between the two countries (Lakshman, 2021). During his presidency, Biden has continued to prioritise India as a strategic partner.

Under the Modi-Biden partnership, there have been several multilateral initiatives, which include – The U.S.-India Climate and Clean Energy Agenda 2030 Partnership, The U.S.-India Joint Leaders’ Statement: A Partnership for Global Good, The U.S.-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology – which have further bolstered the India-US ties, The Indo-Pacific Strategy of 2022, etc. Adding on, Biden has played a crucial role in shaping the immigration policies towards India. Biden reversed the restrictions of H1-B after coming into office, giving ease of access to Indian citizens in the professional dias of the United States as well as the educational sector (Singh, 2023). 

The Biden administration has prioritised strengthening the strategic partnership with India, viewing it as a crucial counterbalance to China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Both nations reaffirm their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, emphasising the importance of rule-based international order, freedom of navigation, and territorial integrity. This translates into collaborative efforts like the QUAD Alliance, promoting a stable and prosperous region (The White House, 2023).  Recognising the vulnerabilities of relying on China-dominated supply chains, India and the US are actively diversifying their partnerships, with initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) aiming to build resilient and secure supply chains (ET, 2023). Energy cooperation takes the spotlight, with plans for clean energy partnerships, LNG deals, and joint research on renewable technologies. Additionally, securing critical minerals for green technologies becomes a shared objective, fostering collaboration to access and responsibly manage these essential resources. This multi-pronged approach highlights the growing convergence of interests between India and the US, solidifying their partnership as a vital pillar for stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region (Energy.gov, 2023).

The escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, coupled with China’s Middle Kingdom Syndrome – claiming territories of the South-China Sea and using history as evidence for its undertakings – underscore the significance of collaborative efforts between India and the United States. The imperative for such cooperation is heightened by China’s assertive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), necessitating vigilance, particularly for nations like India, endowed with one of the world’s extensive coastal boundaries. The geopolitical landscape has created a scenario where the interests of the United States and India intersect, forming a compelling rationale for enhanced collaboration.

Although the India-US partnership under Biden has been seen to have a strong backdrop, recent unfoldings could contribute to a shift in dynamics. Understanding the possibility of a rejuvenated tenure for the incumbent Biden, the administration of the United States now seeks to administer doses of support to the world in an attempt to establish clear support from the international forum towards the Biden leadership. With the election season in South Asia, the United States, under the Biden administration, has been increasingly seen as supporting allies that do not align with Indian interests. In the elections of Pakistan – which have been described as a major blunder in the eyes of democracy – the United States, also the biggest and oldest democracy, showed lesser interest in the means through which the elections were conducted, while nations like the United Kingdom have shown strong dissatisfaction. The increasing affinity of Biden’s administration towards Pakistan will definitely put strain on the future of the India-US partnership. (Kampbell, 2024) 

Meanwhile, the United States, under the presidency of Biden, has been known to be a huge critic of the protection of human rights in India. The stance of the US with regards to the matter of Kashmir has been one of high criticism with reference to the living conditions and violations of the fundamental rights of the citizens. Although this opens up an avenue of possibility for increased open dialogue between the nations, it does not suit the perspective of the Kashmir issue that India faces. 

As a ripple effect of the United State’s strong stance against the Russia-Ukraine war, the neutral stance of India does not bode well in the eyes of Biden. It has been observed time and time again that the United States does not appreciate the Russia-India alliance, especially in terms of energy demands where the United States stands against Russia. Further, India’s imports from Iran also contradict the sanctions placed by the US, deepening areas of possible conflict. The Russia-Ukraine war’s long-term ramifications on global alliances and strategic alignments could have indirect consequences for the India-US partnership. Both nations will need to carefully navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape, ensuring their strategic partnership remains resilient in the face of global upheaval.

Despite potential areas of change and disagreement, the India-US relationship is likely to remain strategically significant due to shared concerns about China and the broader Indo-Pacific region. However, the journey forward will necessitate a spirit of adaptation and collaboration. Both nations will need to address areas of contention through constructive dialogue, remain agile in the face of unforeseen events, and find mutually beneficial solutions that strengthen the partnership in the years to come. By continuously analysing and adapting to the evolving dynamics of this critical partnership, India and the US can ensure its durability and mutual benefit in an increasingly uncertain world.

The author is a research intern at CPPR

Views expressed by the author are personal and need not reflect or represent the views of the Centre for Public Policy Research.

Soham Deshmukh

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